Despite the jobs gains, the report showed signs of a slowing economy elsewhere. Average hourly earnings climbed just 0.17% for the month, below the 0.3% forecast by economists. The share of unemployed people out of work for at least 27 weeks also returned to its pandemic-era high of 23.5%. So did the median unemployment duration, which climbed to 10.4 weeks.
Those latter two figures “both suggest that it is taking longer for unemployed workers to find new opportunities, and reinforce a growing divide in the market between those out of work and those who are employed,” Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab said in a statement. “So far in 2025, the market has been marked by a low firing, low hiring trend that can’t last forever.”
So far in 2025, the market has been marked by a low firing, low hiring trend that can’t last forever.
Cory Stahle, economist, Indeed Hiring Lab
Stocks ticked higher following the report, while traders trimmed bets that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in the short term. Some analysts said Friday’s data, which covers only the first two weeks of April, reflects conditions that are already dissipating.
Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings, said in a note that “the outlook remains very uncertain” despite recent metrics pointing to a “fundamentally strong” economy through the first week of April. “The Fed will continue to sit on its hands until real weakness materializes in the labor market,” he said Friday.
Trump took to his Truth Social platform following the report to repeat his recent calls for another rate cut.
“Just like I said, and we’re only in a TRANSITION STAGE, just getting started!!! Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down. NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!! DJT,” the president wrote, returning to a theme he has recently emphasized despite campaigning on “immediate” economic relief.
Some analysts expect to see further headwinds turn up in the weeks and months ahead. The impact of tariffs on slowing port shipments, for instance, has begun to appear only recently.
“Not unlike an earthquake that’s offshore, it can take a while for the tsunami to come to land,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at the consumer finance firm Bankrate. “So what happens after that? You have a diminution in cargo being trucked or perhaps carried by rail to some degree across the country,” he said, which could lead to supply chain disruptions that “consumers will begin to notice at some point in the coming weeks or months.”
Hamrick also pointed to cracks in a retail landscape where hiring has flatlined, and warned that even modest sales declines due to potential product shortages “can be sufficiently significant to cause a problem, and therefore then be reflected in employment trends.”
Over the past 12 months, just three sectors have accounted for about 80% of all job growth, according to Vanguard financial group: government, health care and social assistance, and leisure and hospitality. The first two face pressure from DOGE cuts, while leisure and hospitality jobs are vulnerable to Trump’s immigration crackdown, Vanguard said.
Still, stock markets have largely recovered from the initial tumult of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff rollout exactly one month ago. The S&P 500 has returned to its pre-April 2 level, although it remains 8% below the all-time high it notched Feb. 19, about a month into Trump’s second presidency.
While many companies have reined in financial expectations for the year, others — especially major tech firms — have so far sailed through relatively unscathed. Microsoft shares have climbed nearly 20% over the past month, though much of that gain came in recent days as investors cheered strong demand for artificial intelligence and cloud computing.
Meanwhile, employers continue to announce U.S. hiring or expansions, though in some cases it has not been clear whether the plans were already underway. On Thursday, The Wall Street Journal reported Kimberly-Clark planned to invest $2 billion and create 900 jobs as it ramped up its U.S. manufacturing. Hyundai, Johnson & Johnson, Nvidia and Toyota have made similar announcements — recently touted by Trump.
But the threat from tariffs continues to hang over the economy, which shrunk in the first quarter, and consumer sentiment remains at decade lows. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has urged the Trump administration to spare smaller companies in particular from his trade war.
“We are deeply concerned that even if it only takes weeks or months to reach agreements, many small businesses will suffer irreparable harm,” the powerful business group said in a letter to senior White House officials Wednesday.